Pompeo briefs Iraqi pioneers on U.S. security worries over Iran
From Pompeo's Warning to Open Conflict: The US‑Iran‑Iraq Crisis (2019‑2026)
In May 2019, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo made an unannounced visit to Baghdad with a stark warning. He told Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi that the United States had seen an "increased threat stream" from Iran and was deploying the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group to the region in response to "a credible threat by Iranian regime forces." Pompeo pressed Iraq to bring Iranian‑backed militias under central government control, warning that their presence made Iraq "a less stable country."[reference:3][reference:4]
Abdul Mahdi's response captured Iraq's impossible position: he affirmed that the US was "a significant strategic partner" but insisted that Baghdad was continuing to seek "a balanced relationship with all of its friends and neighbors, including neighboring Iran."[reference:5] This delicate balancing act—maintaining ties with both Washington and Tehran while trying to preserve Iraqi sovereignty—would prove unsustainable.
Seven years later, the world Pompeo described has been transformed by the very conflict he sought to deter. The US and Iran have engaged in direct military hostilities, culminating in the "Operation Epic Fury" campaign of early 2026. Iraq's political system is paralyzed, caught between competing US and Iranian demands. And the US‑UK "special relationship" that Pompeo touted on his subsequent stop in London has frayed to the breaking point. This is the story of how a 2019 warning became a 2026 crisis.
📋 The 2019 Starting Point: "Maximum Pressure" and Iraqi Balancing
The original 2019 article on this site captured the essence of Pompeo's Baghdad mission. He had diverted from a planned trip to Berlin to deliver an urgent message: Iran was threatening American interests, and the US was responding with a military buildup. The deployment of the Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group and a bomber task force was the most significant show of force in the region since the 2003 invasion of Iraq.[reference:6]
Pompeo's visit came just weeks after the Trump administration designated Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a foreign terrorist organization—the first time the US had applied that label to part of another country's government. The "maximum pressure" campaign, which included the withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal and the reimposition of crippling sanctions, was in full effect. Pompeo told reporters that US intelligence was "very specific" about "attacks that were imminent."[reference:7]
Yet even as Pompeo delivered his warning, the limits of American influence in Iraq were apparent. Abdul Mahdi's government was also nearing a $53 billion, 30‑year energy agreement with ExxonMobil—a sign that Iraq was eager to attract Western investment but would not be dictated to by Washington. And Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif dismissed the US warnings as "psychological warfare," a view shared by many Iraqi officials who saw the American posture as overblown.[reference:8]
💡 Analyst Perspective: The Seeds of the Current Crisis
The 2019 standoff contained the seeds of everything that would follow. The US was attempting to coerce Iran through economic pressure and military threats. Iran was responding with calibrated provocations—attacks on oil tankers, downing a US drone, and eventually the 2020 missile strikes on US bases in Iraq after the killing of Qasem Soleimani. And Iraq was caught in the middle, its sovereignty eroded by the presence of both US forces and Iran‑backed militias operating with impunity on its territory. The question was not whether this unstable equilibrium would break, but when.
⚔️ The Path to War: From Soleimani to "Operation Epic Fury"
The years between Pompeo's 2019 visit and the 2026 war were marked by a series of escalating confrontations. In January 2020, the US killed Qasem Soleimani, the commander of Iran's Quds Force, in a drone strike at Baghdad International Airport. Iran retaliated with ballistic missile strikes on US bases in Iraq, causing traumatic brain injuries to more than 100 American service members but, remarkably, no immediate deaths. The crisis subsided, but the underlying conflict never went away.
During the Biden administration, indirect talks aimed at reviving the 2015 nuclear deal took place in Vienna but ultimately failed. Iran continued to expand its nuclear program, enriching uranium to 60% purity—a level with no plausible civilian use and just a short step from weapons‑grade. Meanwhile, Iran‑backed militias in Iraq, operating under the umbrella of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), conducted hundreds of drone and rocket attacks on US facilities across the region.[reference:9]
When Donald Trump returned to the White House in January 2025, the stage was set for a far more dangerous confrontation. In late February 2026, the US launched "Operation Epic Fury"—a coordinated military campaign against Iranian nuclear and military targets. The operation, which included strikes on facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, was preceded by Israeli strikes and marked the first direct, sustained military conflict between the US and Iran.[reference:10]
🇮🇶 Iraq in the Crossfire: The 2026 Crisis
If 2019 was difficult for Iraq, 2026 has been catastrophic. The country is caught in a vise between US pressure to dismantle Iran‑backed militias and Iranian demands to expel American forces. Iran‑aligned armed groups in Iraq have launched repeated drone and rocket attacks on US facilities and neighboring Gulf states in support of Tehran.[reference:12] The US has responded with airstrikes on militia positions inside Iraq, further eroding Iraqi sovereignty.
In a dramatic escalation, the Trump administration has halted shipments of US dollars to Iraq and suspended security cooperation programs with the Iraqi military. A shipment of approximately $500 million in cash—generated from Iraq's oil revenues and routed through the Federal Reserve Bank of New York—was blocked by the US Treasury. Washington has also frozen funding for counter‑terrorism and military training programs, including intelligence sharing previously provided to Baghdad.[reference:13][reference:14]
"Washington will not support any Iraqi government that is incapable of curbing militias backed by Iran from attacking US interests and its Gulf allies," a Foreign Ministry source told Reuters. The message is clear: Iraq must choose sides, or face the consequences.[reference:15]
The financial pressure is particularly acute because of the unique arrangement put in place after the 2003 US‑led invasion. Iraq's oil revenues are held in accounts at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and large shipments of cash are flown back to Baghdad each year to keep the economy functioning. This system, originally designed to stabilize Iraq's economy, now gives Washington enormous leverage over a country it once occupied.[reference:16]
💡 Analyst Perspective: The Weaponization of Dollar Access
The US decision to halt dollar shipments to Iraq is a powerful but risky tool. On one hand, it forces Baghdad to confront the reality that its financial lifeline depends on Washington's goodwill. On the other hand, it could push Iraq further into Iran's orbit, as the country seeks alternative financial arrangements. The move also risks destabilizing Iraq's economy, which relies on these cash shipments to meet retail foreign exchange demand for travel, medical treatment, and overseas study. The longer the blockade continues, the greater the risk of economic collapse and political chaos.[reference:17]
🗳️ Iraq's Political Paralysis: Five Months Without a Government
Compounding the security crisis is a profound political deadlock. More than five months after parliamentary elections in November 2025, Iraq still has no permanent government. The Coordination Framework, the largest bloc of Shia parties commanding 185 of 329 seats in parliament, has been unable to agree on a prime ministerial candidate. The constitution requires that a prime minister be nominated within 15 days of the president's election—and Nizar Amedi was elected president on April 11. The deadline is Sunday, April 26.[reference:18][reference:19]
The impasse reflects the competing pressures from Washington and Tehran. In January, the Coordination Framework chose two‑time Prime Minister Nouri al‑Maliki, who has close links with Iran, as its nominee. The move triggered an angry reaction from US President Donald Trump, who threatened to stop supporting Iraq if al‑Maliki returned to power. Internal differences within the bloc—between the Hikma Movement and the Asa'ib Ahl al‑Haq Movement—have further delayed a decision.[reference:20]
Incumbent Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al‑Sudani is seeking a second term but faces opposition from within his own coalition. A compromise candidate, Bassem al‑Badry, has emerged as a frontrunner, though he is aligned with al‑Maliki and his nomination is opposed by al‑Sudani's supporters. The balance is reportedly "tipping" in favor of al‑Badry.[reference:21]
Behind the scenes, both the US and Iran are actively shaping the outcome. Ismail Qaani, the head of Iran's Quds Force, visited Baghdad at the weekend to meet with political leaders and militia commanders, reportedly aiming to break the leadership deadlock. US envoy to the Middle East Tom Barrack has also been involved in the negotiations.[reference:22][reference:23]
💣 The Wider War: Iran's Regional Escalation
The conflict has not been confined to Iraq. Iran has launched sustained attacks across the region, hitting airports and hotels where British citizens are staying, and striking a military base in Bahrain that narrowly missed British personnel. The death of Iran's Supreme Leader has not stopped the strikes; if anything, the approach has become "even more reckless—and more dangerous to civilians."[reference:25]
Iran has also unsuccessfully targeted the joint US‑UK military base at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean. Communities Secretary Steve Reed said Britain is ready to defend itself against a potential Iranian missile assault on London, though he emphasized there is "no specific assessment that the Iranians are targeting the UK."[reference:26]
The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world's oil travels, has become a central battleground. Iran briefly reopened the strait to shipping traffic in mid‑April, only for Trump to maintain the US blockade, "incensing" leaders in Tehran. Iranian military officials have warned they are fully prepared to respond to any new escalation, claiming readiness to strike predetermined targets if attacked.[reference:27][reference:28]
Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein has warned that the conflict now goes beyond the nuclear issue to more complex matters such as ballistic missiles. "I am really worried about a war, which can cover the whole area, and that will be a disaster for the area," he said at the Munich Security Conference.[reference:29]
🕊️ The Ceasefire and Ongoing Tensions: April 2026
As of April 22, 2026, the US and Iran are in a fragile state of neither war nor peace. On April 21, Trump announced he would not go forward with new strikes on Iran at the request of Pakistani officials, extending a ceasefire that had been set to expire the following day. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir asked the US to "hold our Attack on the Country of Iran until such time as [Iranian] leaders and representatives can come up with a unified proposal" to end the war.[reference:30]
But Trump has maintained the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz and warned that the US remains "ready and able" to resume strikes. "I expect to be bombing," he told CNBC before the ceasefire extension was announced. He has also threatened that a successful deal must be "a Trump deal"—one that ensures "peace, security, and safety" for the Middle East and beyond.[reference:31][reference:32]
Iran, meanwhile, has shown mixed signals—briefly indicating openness to talks through intermediaries before tightening its conditions, including demands related to US military posture in the region. The talks are complicated by internal divisions in Tehran, with disagreements emerging between military and civilian leadership. Some US officials reportedly fear that Iran's fractured decision‑making structure may prevent any agreement from being approved.[reference:33]
💡 Analyst Perspective: A Ceasefire, Not a Peace
The current ceasefire is best understood as a pause, not a resolution. Both sides have incentives to avoid a full‑scale war—the US faces a complex military challenge against Iran's missile capabilities and layered defenses, while Iran's economy is being "absolutely destroyed" by the blockade. But the underlying disputes—over Iran's nuclear program, ballistic missiles, and regional influence—remain unresolved. The risk of renewed conflict is high, and the consequences for Iraq and the wider region could be catastrophic.
🇬🇧🇺🇸 The "Special Relationship" in 2026: A Partnership Under Strain
When Pompeo left Baghdad for London in May 2019, he was pitching a post‑Brexit "special relationship" between the US and UK. Seven years later, that relationship is under unprecedented strain. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has refused to join the US war against Iran, declaring it "not our war" and warning that the UK will not be drawn into external conflicts. "I'm not going to change my mind. I'm not going to yield," he told MPs.[reference:34][reference:35]
Trump's response has been scathing. He told Sky News that the state of the special relationship was "sad," and that when the US needed British help, "they were not there." He has threatened to shred the US‑UK trade deal, suggesting he could renege on tariff concessions he granted last year. "We gave them a good trade deal. Better than I had to. Which can always be changed."[reference:36][reference:37]
Starmer has also rebuffed US requests to assist the Navy in the Hormuz blockade and declined to allow US bombers to use British bases for offensive strikes. The UK has permitted the use of its bases only for "specific and limited defensive purpose"—to prevent Iran from firing missiles across the region and to protect British lives. This nuanced position has satisfied neither Washington nor its critics.[reference:38][reference:39]
The House of Lords International Relations and Defence Committee has now published a landmark report concluding that the UK must "move beyond the sentimental notion of a 'special relationship.'" The report warns that future US‑UK relations will be "far more transactional and interest based," and that the UK must "reduce its over‑reliance on the US and take the lead in cultivating other partnerships."[reference:40]
🔍 Where Are They Now? The 2019 Cast
The key figures from Pompeo's 2019 Baghdad visit have taken divergent paths in the seven years since.
Mike Pompeo
After leaving office in January 2021, Pompeo joined the Hudson Institute as a Distinguished Visiting Fellow and later co‑founded a private equity firm. He has remained active in conservative politics and has close ties to Trump's political operation. He has not ruled out serving in a future Republican administration.
Adel Abdul Mahdi
The prime minister who hosted Pompeo in 2019 resigned in December 2019 following months of mass protests against corruption and Iranian influence. He has largely retreated from public life, though he remains a figure in Iraq's Shia political circles.
Mohammed Shia al‑Sudani
The current caretaker prime minister is seeking a second term but faces an uncertain future. He has tried to balance relations with both Washington and Tehran, but the US‑Iran war has made that balancing act nearly impossible. His fate—and Iraq's—will be decided in the coming days.
📊 US‑Iran‑Iraq Crisis: 2019 vs. 2026
| Aspect | 2019 (Pompeo Visit) | 2026 (Current Reality) |
|---|---|---|
| US President | Donald Trump (first term) | Donald Trump (second term) |
| US‑Iran Conflict Status | Saber‑rattling; carrier deployment; no direct combat | Open war; "Operation Epic Fury" strikes; fragile ceasefire |
| Iraqi Prime Minister | Adel Abdul Mahdi | Mohammed Shia al‑Sudani (caretaker); political deadlock |
| US Troops in Iraq | ~5,200 (advising and training) | Security cooperation suspended; dollar shipments halted |
| Iran‑Backed Militias in Iraq | Operating with impunity; US pressure to rein them in | Conducting hundreds of attacks; joint operations room formed |
| US‑UK "Special Relationship" | Pompeo pitching post‑Brexit partnership | UK refuses to join war; Trump threatens trade deal; Lords urge rebalancing |
| Strait of Hormuz | Open; occasional Iranian harassment | US blockade; Iran briefly reopened; ongoing tension |
| Iraq's Financial Leverage | Dependent on US‑controlled oil revenue accounts | US halting dollar shipments; economic pressure mounting |
📋 The Bottom Line: Key Takeaways for 2026
📋 Pompeo's 2019 Warning Was Prescient: The "increased threat stream" that Pompeo warned about has materialized into open conflict. The carrier strike group he deployed was the first of many US military assets now positioned in the region.
🇮🇶 Iraq Is Paying the Price: Caught between US pressure and Iranian influence, Iraq's sovereignty has been eroded. The US has halted dollar shipments and security cooperation, while Iran‑backed militias operate with impunity. The country is five months without a permanent government.
💣 The War Has Escalated Beyond the Nuclear Issue: The conflict now encompasses ballistic missiles, regional proxies, and control of the Strait of Hormuz. Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein warns of a "limitless war" that could engulf the entire Middle East.
🕊️ The Ceasefire Is Fragile: Trump has extended the ceasefire at Pakistan's request but maintains the Hormuz blockade. He has warned he is "highly unlikely" to extend it again. The risk of renewed strikes is high.
🇬🇧🇺🇸 The "Special Relationship" Is Under Unprecedented Strain: The UK has refused to join the US war against Iran, prompting Trump to threaten the US‑UK trade deal. A House of Lords report urges the UK to "move beyond the sentimental notion of a 'special relationship.'"
💰 The US Is Weaponizing Iraq's Access to Its Own Money: The halt of dollar shipments—generated from Iraq's oil revenues—gives Washington enormous leverage over Baghdad. But it also risks pushing Iraq further into Iran's orbit.
🔮 The Future Is Uncertain: The outcome of Iraq's political deadlock, the fate of the Iran ceasefire, and the trajectory of the US‑UK relationship will shape the Middle East for years to come. The 2019 warning has become a 2026 crisis, and the end is not in sight.
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