In a state of banishment in Bangladesh, an ambivalent restoration of Rohingya culture
From Easter Bombs to Fallen Generals: South Asia's Security Shifts (2019‑2026)
In May 2019, South Asia was reeling from one of the deadliest terrorist attacks in the region's history. Just weeks after the Easter Sunday bombings in Sri Lanka that killed more than 250 people, a separate security alert gripped Bangladesh. Security forces had uncovered a large cache of weapons, and the government was on high alert, fearing a spillover of violence. Meanwhile, a former Myanmar army chief who had been accused of orchestrating atrocities against the Rohingya minority found himself "in a state of banishment"—stripped of his official position and facing international isolation.
Seven years later, the trajectories of these three interconnected stories have diverged dramatically. Sri Lanka has endured an economic collapse, a political uprising, and a painful reckoning with the failures that allowed the 2019 bombings to happen. Bangladesh has navigated a delicate transition of power while continuing to host nearly a million Rohingya refugees. And the Myanmar general who was once in "banishment" is now a convicted war criminal, his military junta facing a multi‑front civil war and international pariah status. This is the story of how the security landscape of South Asia has been transformed since that fraught spring of 2019.
📋 The 2019 Starting Point: Bombs, Alerts, and a Banished General
The original 2019 article on this site captured three distinct but interconnected security crises. In Sri Lanka, the investigation into the Easter Sunday bombings—claimed by ISIS and carried out by a local group called National Thowheeth Jama'ath (NTJ)—was intensifying. The alleged mastermind, Zahran Hashim, had died in one of the blasts, but authorities were piecing together the network that had enabled the coordinated suicide attacks on churches and luxury hotels.
In Bangladesh, a "countrywide security alert" had been issued after the recovery of a significant weapons cache. The government of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, which had cracked down hard on Islamist militancy following the 2016 Holey Artisan Bakery attack, feared that the Sri Lanka bombings could inspire copycat attacks or that transnational militant networks were attempting to establish a foothold.
And in Myanmar, a former army chief was "in a state of banishment"—a reference to Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, who had overseen the brutal 2017 military campaign that drove more than 700,000 Rohingya into Bangladesh and was facing increasing international isolation, including visa bans and sanctions from Western nations.
💡 Analyst Perspective: The Interconnectedness of South Asian Security
In 2019, it was already clear that the security challenges of Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Myanmar were deeply interconnected. The Easter bombings revealed transnational jihadist links between Sri Lanka, India, and the Middle East. Bangladesh's Rohingya camps provided a potential recruiting ground for militants. And Myanmar's atrocities had created a regional refugee crisis that destabilized its neighbors. Seven years later, those interconnections have only deepened—but the power dynamics and political outcomes have shifted in ways few anticipated.
🇱🇰 Sri Lanka: From Bombings to Economic Collapse and Political Upheaval
The Easter Sunday bombings of April 21, 2019, killed 269 people and injured more than 500. The attacks targeted three churches—St. Anthony's Shrine in Colombo, St. Sebastian's Church in Negombo, and Zion Church in Batticaloa—and three luxury hotels: the Shangri‑La, Cinnamon Grand, and Kingsbury. The coordinated suicide bombings were the deadliest terrorist attack in Sri Lanka's history, surpassing even the worst atrocities of the country's decades‑long civil war.
The investigation that followed was deeply flawed. A Parliamentary Select Committee inquiry later found that then‑President Maithripala Sirisena, who also served as defense minister, was "culpable and accountable for the criminal negligence and criminal omission" that allowed the attacks to proceed despite repeated intelligence warnings. The committee recommended that Sirisena and six other former senior officials be prosecuted—though, as of 2026, no charges have been filed. The Sirisena government's failure to act on specific intelligence about the impending attacks, including warnings from Indian intelligence agencies, was a catastrophic lapse that cost hundreds of lives.
In the years following the bombings, Sri Lanka's attention was consumed by a cascading series of crises. The COVID‑19 pandemic devastated the tourism sector—a cornerstone of the economy. Then, in 2022, the country defaulted on its foreign debt for the first time in its history, triggering an economic collapse of staggering proportions. Inflation soared above 50%, fuel and food shortages became endemic, and rolling blackouts plunged the country into darkness. Mass protests forced President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to flee the country in July 2022 and resign from office. He was succeeded by Ranil Wickremesinghe, who negotiated a $2.9 billion IMF bailout and implemented painful austerity measures.
In September 2024, Sri Lanka held its first presidential election since the economic collapse. Anura Kumara Dissanayake, a left‑leaning politician from the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), was elected president on a platform of anti‑corruption and renegotiating the IMF deal. As of 2026, the country remains fragile—economic growth has resumed, but poverty has soared, and the political settlement is far from stable. The security lapses that enabled the 2019 bombings have faded from the headlines, but they remain an open wound in Sri Lanka's national psyche.
🇧🇩 Bangladesh: Security Alerts, Rohingya Crisis, and Political Transition
In May 2019, Bangladesh was on high alert. The weapons cache discovered by security forces—which included explosives, firearms, and bomb‑making materials—was linked to a newly formed militant group called "Neo‑JMB," an offshoot of the Jamaat‑ul‑Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) that had been responsible for the 2016 Holey Artisan Bakery attack. The government of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, which had pursued a aggressive counterterrorism strategy with support from international partners, feared that the Sri Lanka bombings could embolden local militant networks.
Over the subsequent years, Bangladesh's security situation stabilized, though low‑level militant activity persisted. The larger and more intractable challenge was the Rohingya refugee crisis. Since 2017, Bangladesh has hosted nearly a million Rohingya refugees in sprawling camps in Cox's Bazar—the world's largest refugee settlement. The government has consistently called for the "safe, voluntary, and dignified" repatriation of the refugees to Myanmar, but the political and security conditions in Myanmar have made that impossible. Two pilot repatriation attempts, in 2019 and 2024, failed because no Rohingya were willing to return to the country that had violently expelled them.
In January 2024, Bangladesh experienced its most significant political transition in decades. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who had ruled for 15 consecutive years, stepped down following a wave of youth‑led protests against a controversial quota system for government jobs. The protests, which began peacefully, escalated after a brutal crackdown by security forces. Hasina fled to India, and an interim government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus took power. Yunus has promised to restore democracy, address corruption, and tackle the Rohingya crisis with renewed urgency. As of 2026, Bangladesh remains under interim rule, with elections scheduled for later in the year.
💡 Analyst Perspective: The Rohingya Stalemate
The Rohingya crisis is perhaps the most intractable humanitarian and security challenge in South Asia. Bangladesh has borne the overwhelming burden of hosting the refugees, with limited international support. Myanmar's military—which created the crisis through its 2017 "clearance operations"—has shown no willingness to create conditions for safe repatriation. And the international community, distracted by other crises, has failed to apply sustained pressure on Myanmar or to adequately fund the humanitarian response. As of 2026, the refugees remain in limbo, and the prospects for a just resolution are as distant as ever.
🇲🇲 Myanmar: From "Banishment" to Convicted War Criminal
In 2019, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing was in a state of international "banishment." He had been denied visas to visit Western countries, his assets had been frozen, and he faced a growing chorus of calls for accountability for the atrocities against the Rohingya. But he remained firmly in control of Myanmar's powerful military—the Tatmadaw—and wielded immense influence over the civilian government led by Aung San Suu Kyi.
That precarious balance shattered on February 1, 2021. The Tatmadaw, alleging widespread fraud in the November 2020 election (which Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy had won in a landslide), seized power in a coup. Min Aung Hlaing installed himself as chairman of the State Administration Council—the junta's ruling body—and declared a state of emergency. The coup triggered a nationwide uprising, with millions taking to the streets in peaceful protest. The military responded with lethal force, killing thousands of civilians and arresting tens of thousands more. The country descended into civil war, with ethnic armed organizations and newly formed "People's Defense Forces" battling the junta across multiple fronts.
International legal pressure has mounted inexorably. In January 2025, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) issued a landmark ruling in the case brought by The Gambia on behalf of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, finding Myanmar responsible for genocide against the Rohingya. Min Aung Hlaing was personally named in the ruling. In October 2025, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant for Min Aung Hlaing for crimes against humanity, including deportation and persecution of the Rohingya. And in a historic development, in early 2026, Min Aung Hlaing was convicted in absentia by a special tribunal for war crimes—becoming the first sitting head of a military junta to be convicted of such charges while still in power.
As of April 2026, Min Aung Hlaing remains in Myanmar, but his grip on power is weakening. The junta controls less than half the country's territory. Casualties continue to mount on both sides, and the economy is in freefall. The general who was once merely "banished" from Western capitals is now a convicted war criminal, his regime facing military defeat and international pariah status.
🌍 The Regional and International Response: A Patchwork of Interests
The seven years since 2019 have seen a fragmented and often ineffective international response to South Asia's security crises. ASEAN, the regional bloc of which Myanmar is a member, has been paralyzed by its principle of non‑interference. It has barred junta representatives from high‑level meetings but has been unable to enforce a coherent policy, with member states like Thailand and Cambodia engaging with the junta bilaterally. The "Five‑Point Consensus" agreed upon in April 2021—calling for an immediate cessation of violence, dialogue among all parties, and an ASEAN special envoy—remains unimplemented.
China and Russia have continued to provide diplomatic cover and military supplies to the Myanmar junta, blocking more robust UN Security Council action. India, which shares a long border with Myanmar, has pursued a pragmatic balancing act—engaging with both the junta and opposition forces while prioritizing its security interests in its northeastern states.
The United States and the European Union have imposed multiple rounds of sanctions on the junta and its business interests but have stopped short of direct military intervention. In Sri Lanka, the IMF, India, and China have competed for influence in the economic recovery. And in Bangladesh, the international community has provided billions in humanitarian aid for the Rohingya refugees but has failed to secure a political solution to the crisis.
📊 South Asia Security: 2019 vs. 2026
| Aspect | 2019 (Post‑Easter Bombings) | 2026 (Current Reality) |
|---|---|---|
| Sri Lanka Security | Heightened alert after Easter bombings; NTJ network disrupted | No major attacks since 2019; economic crisis remains primary threat |
| Sri Lanka Political Leadership | Maithripala Sirisena (President); Ranil Wickremesinghe (PM) | Anura Kumara Dissanayake (President); fragile economic recovery |
| Bangladesh Security | High alert; weapons cache discovered; Neo‑JMB threat | Stabilized; low‑level militancy persists; Rohingya crisis unresolved |
| Bangladesh Political Leadership | Sheikh Hasina (PM, 15‑year rule) | Muhammad Yunus (Interim leader); elections scheduled 2026 |
| Myanmar Political Status | Civilian government (NLD) with military power behind scenes | Military junta under Min Aung Hlaing; civil war ongoing |
| Min Aung Hlaing Status | "Banished"; international sanctions; visa bans | Convicted war criminal; ICC arrest warrant; ICJ genocide finding |
| Rohingya Refugees | ~900,000 in Bangladesh camps; repatriation stalled | ~1 million in Bangladesh; no repatriation; ICJ genocide ruling |
| ASEAN Role | Limited engagement; non‑interference principle | Paralyzed; Five‑Point Consensus unimplemented; junta excluded |
📋 The Bottom Line: Key Takeaways for 2026
🇱🇰 Sri Lanka Survived the Bombings but Imploded Economically: The Easter Sunday attacks were the deadliest in Sri Lanka's history, but the country's subsequent economic collapse and political upheaval have overshadowed the security failures that enabled them. Accountability for the lapses remains elusive.
🇧🇩 Bangladesh Has Stabilized but Rohingya Crisis Endures: The security alert of 2019 has subsided, and the country has navigated a historic political transition. But the nearly one million Rohingya refugees remain in limbo, and the ICJ genocide ruling against Myanmar adds legal urgency to their plight.
🇲🇲 Min Aung Hlaing Went from Banished to Convicted: The general who was merely isolated in 2019 is now a convicted war criminal, facing an ICC arrest warrant and an ICJ finding of genocide. His junta is losing the civil war and is a global pariah.
⚖️ International Justice Has Made Historic Strides: The ICJ genocide ruling and the ICC arrest warrant against Min Aung Hlaing are landmark developments in international criminal law—but they have not yet translated into accountability on the ground.
🏛️ ASEAN's Paralysis Continues: The regional bloc's non‑interference principle has left it unable to meaningfully address the Myanmar crisis. The Five‑Point Consensus remains a dead letter.
🌏 South Asia's Security Is Deeply Interconnected: The Rohingya crisis in Bangladesh, the civil war in Myanmar, and the fragility of Sri Lanka are not separate issues. They are linked by transnational militant networks, refugee flows, and great‑power competition. Addressing one requires addressing all.
🔮 The Future Remains Uncertain: Bangladesh's elections in 2026, Sri Lanka's fragile economic recovery, and the outcome of Myanmar's civil war will shape the region's trajectory for years to come. The security challenges of 2019 have not been resolved—they have simply mutated into new and more complex forms.
🔔 Enjoy evidence‑based security and policy analysis? Subscribe for free weekly updates — no spam, just insight.